A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
